Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Failure: This Is What It Looks Like

Apple is exceedingly good at covering up their failures. It's easy when you have the valley tech press in your back pocket. Apple has their owned trained monkeys writing stories for them. People so stupid, they only know how to use Apple products, and so disconnected from reality, they actually thought this hideous, clumsy hunk of shit was going to sell.


So the real story here is one of failure. The most interesting aspect of the watch debacle is that the paid shills keep bleeting. They still talk like this thing is the next big thing. Apple made 5 million of these. It was a page right out of their playbook.

"We'll sell them all the first day. We'll tell +The Verge to do a story about it. Then there will be a panic, and demand, and everyone will have to have one!"

Except that never happened

A lot of us were asking ourselves, "Who is going to be stupid enough to want this dorky looking eyesore?". We can answer that now. 

2 million people
That's it.
That's why you haven't met a single person wearing one.

Not 2 million the first hour. Not 2 million the first day. Not 2 million the first week. 2 million total. Interestingly enough, the same number of people care about Apple Pay despite there being 70 million phones that can use it. And that's a huge deal because Apple has about 20 million users that will buy any dumb thing they make. Only 10 percent of their most zealotous users were dumb enough to buy the watch, or clueful enough to figure out their confusing wallet. They are now stuck with 3 million watches nobody wants, and are rapidly running out of ideas on how to spin that. They've gone with this:

"It's um, uh, exclusive. Yeah. That's it. So um, despite the fact that we have 3 million of these things just sitting around that we can't sell, we'll make it invite only"

Yeah. Because that makes sense. A high volume Chinese maker like Apple, selling something easier to make than an iPhone, with a bigger margin than an iPhone, won't want to sell as many of these as possible as fast as possible. Riiiiiiight. 

So what's their next move? The typical Apple move when something fails is to do absolutely nothing. They know the press won't say anything, because Apple controls the press. That's why we haven't heard anything about the dismal new iPhone model sales in China. Sure, they are selling "iphones" in China, but it's their 3 year old iPhone 4S Chinese Market model in stainless steel, deeply discounted to about 99 bucks American. Both Apple and the valley press are more than happy to just say "iPhone Sales" and pretend those are the new phones. They aren't. They aren't talking about the huge failure of iRadio. Wasn't Spotify supposed to be out of business by now? They aren't talking about iBeacons Payments failing, and nobody called them out for having to copy Google Wallet AND Google's first generation beta secure element NFC technology. Google's is already a generation ahead of Apple. That's why Apple's tech only works with a few banks, while Google's works with all banks. And that's a problem. Because they won't be able to hide the failure of Apple Pay, or their poorly done Android Wear copy this time. 

How long can the valley press pretend 2 million users matter?

How are they possibly going to ignore these failures after all the hype?

The valley press is scared. They know they can't tell the truth about Apple. Apple punishes people that do. Computerbild.de accurately reported that the Consumer Reports iPhone bend test was flawed, and proved that it only takes 41 pounds of force to bend one of the new iPhones. Apple's response? They blacklisted them. That's what happens when you are honest about Apple. They act like children. So all the scared valley press can do is wait, and hope Apple gives them a way out of talking about these two latest high profile failures. A lot of the press is so stupid, they actually think Apple Rapture will happen, and these duds will succeed. Because being quiet about failures this high profile isn't an option this time. 

In a few months, people will notice that nobody is talking about that watch Apple made, or their copy of Google Wallet. 

and that will be the story

Now, you may be saying to yourself now: "How is this even possible? Scott is full of shit. This is all just some crazy Apple conspiracy theory."

Lets reach back into history. Lets go back to 1993. One of Apple's paid shills named +Walt Mossberg wrote a story about how the Apple Newton was going to change the world:

Here are some choice quotes:

"After two weeks of working with a Newton every day, I regard it as the first pen-based computer that works really well"

Now, we know this is a lie. It was horrible.

"The device ships with a list of 10,000 words it recognizes, and you add others as you go along, so Newton isn’t likely to goof up the same word twice."

We know this is a lie, because he claims he used it for two weeks, and it had problems getting two words right in the same sentence. But my favorite has to be this:

"The first Newton model is costly (up to $1500 with all the options); its handwriting recognition, while the best ever in a computer..."

Which is also a lie. The Newton was a poorly implemented and conceived copy of the Gridpad (the first tablet computer), which had much better handwriting recognition. It wasn't until PalmOS that a device was released that was better than the GridPad. Which isn't surprisng. They were both the brainchild of Jeff Hawkins. 

New Computer Can Read Handwriting

It actually was a success, unlike the crappy Newton. It found huge customers in NASA (There were Gridpads on the Space Shuttle) and Conrail, and other industries. No, it didn't do cursive (I had one) but it worked reliably and consistently. The Newton did not.

Kinda like how the Apple Watch doesn't work as well as Android Wear

Kinda like how Apple Pay probably won't work with your bank, but Google's Wallet will work with all of them. 
Noticing a pattern?

1) Apple copies/steals someone else's work
2) Apple pretends they invented the technology
3) Apple's take is usually substandard and buggy
4) Apple puts their army of shill journalists to work
5) If the marketing works, the product succeeds anyway

The best way to look at this is you get to sit back and watch it all go south, knowing what's really up. It's fascinating watching Apple twist in the wind. They don't handle it well. They start to believe their own fan fiction. It makes for glorious wonderful failures.